The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History Info

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The author of the best-selling The Roaring 2000s
predicts a major economic depression while offering counsel on how
to survive it, sharing advice on everything from protecting one's
investments to eliminating property ownership. 150,000 first
printing.

Average Ratings and Reviews
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Reviews for The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History:

3

Aug 02, 2011

Everything follows some kind of cycles. I think that this is what Harry S. Dent, Jr. is saying in this book, The Great Depression Ahead. The economic cycle, innovation cycle, technology advancement cycle, weather cycle, etc. Then all these cycles contribute to our livelihood. The turnaround of each could be years to decades (e.g., economic, depending on the country or industry), decades to centuries (e.g., innovation and technology, e.g., industrial revolution or computer age) or centuries to Everything follows some kind of cycles. I think that this is what Harry S. Dent, Jr. is saying in this book, The Great Depression Ahead. The economic cycle, innovation cycle, technology advancement cycle, weather cycle, etc. Then all these cycles contribute to our livelihood. The turnaround of each could be years to decades (e.g., economic, depending on the country or industry), decades to centuries (e.g., innovation and technology, e.g., industrial revolution or computer age) or centuries to millenniums (ice age, stone age).

First published in 2008, it predicts the economic depression that is happening now with the USA and Europe being hit quite badly. It is not really amazing since, if I remember it right, the slump in US economy started to be felt in 2007 and Dent probably took advantage of it by getting his crystal ball and writing this book. Not really a bad thing to do because Dent was just doing his job. He is a world-renowned economic forecaster and investors including stock owners subscribe to his website for suggestion on whether to cash out or buy more stocks. We all hate uncertainties so it is better to have somebody like Dent who even if he is not God, gives us a little comfort by having some sane (based on analytical and professional experience) advices.

However, Dent did not stop with his short-term predictions that would affect the stocks that you have in your portfolio. He even gave predictions on what will happen decades or centuries from our life time. He predicted that the current global recession would last up to 2013, then it will bottom out and to be followed by a very slow recovery. The reason? Demographics. Most advanced or even emerging economies are aging. With aging economies, innovation and technological advancements will be slow. This is very true with China, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand, Germany, Italy, etc. because of their low birth rates. Compared to for example, Norway having the highest birthrate in the world because of the support (tax rate, long maternity leave, etc) that the country provides and the husbands there basically support the wives by the doing their shares in the household chores. The way to address this, according to (but not exclusive of him) Dent, is by encouraging immigration and this is the reason why the US, Canada and Australia will not have much problem with the aging economy as young professionals continue to flock to their countries to live, work and raise their families.

Just like any predictions though, there are some portions of the books that Dent just stated the obvious or recent happenings to predict the future. For example, he mentioned that Thailand will be able to sustain its growth but it will be slow and will decline sometime from 2025 to 2030. However, it will have problem with its political situation like what happened during the 2006 coup even if there was no bloodshed. The statements like these are very general and if I were holding stocks of a Thai company, I will be more confused rather than based my decision on what Dent was saying.

However, you will feel that this is not a wishy-washy book. Dent made use of historical trends and tools, e.g., the Bell or Gaussian Curve, mean and standard deviation, etc in presenting his cases. At the end of a book was even a website where readers can log-in as members to get the updates on his predictions. These seem like legit after all. In his closing paragraph, he even gave his advices on global terrorism and tsunami: live outside the city and away from the seashore. Very practical advices, right?
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5

Mar 23, 2009

Opportunistic investment guide

This book is a bold attempt to predict not only the next several decades, but also the next several centuries at one point, author Harry S. Dent prognosticates about the year 2400. As he mentions, however, he did predict Japans 1990s economic slump and the U.S. boom that began in 1998. If you are a believer, take cover, because now Dents predictions are not so rosy. He foresees a major depression followed by a long period of slow growth. He is singing with the Opportunistic investment guide

This book is a bold attempt to predict not only the next several decades, but also the next several centuries – at one point, author Harry S. Dent prognosticates about the year 2400. As he mentions, however, he did predict Japan’s 1990s economic slump and the U.S. boom that began in 1998. If you are a believer, take cover, because now Dent’s predictions are not so rosy. He foresees a major depression followed by a long period of slow growth. He is singing with the great chorus of economic pundits and prophets, the preponderance of whom seem to be chanting a dirge. However, Dent predicts several encouraging points of light in the very long tunnel ahead, and a great new boom starting about 2020–2023. His methodology is distinctive, though not unique. He anchors his analysis in demographic and technology cycles. Readers might or might not share his faith in the existence and predictability of these cycles, keeping in mind that good advice in the past is not an accurate predictor of the future. However, getAbstract notes that even readers who scoff at the notion that one can predict developments over a centuries-long scale might find the author's methodology useful and his investment recommendations worth considering. ...more
1

Jun 10, 2009

I stopped reading this book partway through because it wasn't good.

Although I believe there is an extremely serious economic downturn imminent, this book's premise is not the reason why. The author attempts to tie everything into wave analysis, some of which appear fabricated out of thin air. Demographics are important and can follow some cyclical trends, but this book is all over the place and completely incoherent. There are so many predictions for given years for various wave patterns of I stopped reading this book partway through because it wasn't good.

Although I believe there is an extremely serious economic downturn imminent, this book's premise is not the reason why. The author attempts to tie everything into wave analysis, some of which appear fabricated out of thin air. Demographics are important and can follow some cyclical trends, but this book is all over the place and completely incoherent. There are so many predictions for given years for various wave patterns of varying credibility that it just makes a big mess.

My thesis on this type of analysis- the human brain is designed for pattern recognition. This book finds patterns all over the place, but not all are valid.

It would also be difficult to position or trade on this advice, which I think is a major intended audience. The author points out he made the correct call when people were expecting a downturn in the 90s, and made a buy call after the dot-com bubble. But he also made outrageous predictions, and has made bad predictions on timing and levels just months after publishing (when the short term predictions should be the most accurate). The author has so many predictions laid all over the place out it's impossible not to hit or miss on a lot of them. In fact, there are so many, it's almost impossible to keep track of them all. Therefore those that hit become memorable, and those that miss become forgotten (when he is doing his own self-promotion). ...more
5

Jun 01, 2010

I liked it. This book will not bring much sunshine to your day, but it will bring a wealth of fundamental fact to the table. Mr. Dent's approach to forecasting the future is grounded solidly in patterns of the past, and in THAT I am a great believer. He is exhaustive in the historical detail, and presents a very convincing case for the many interleaved cycles that mark the cadence of mankind's progress -- economic, demographic, revolutionary, geopolitical, migrational, to name a few. Today just I liked it. This book will not bring much sunshine to your day, but it will bring a wealth of fundamental fact to the table. Mr. Dent's approach to forecasting the future is grounded solidly in patterns of the past, and in THAT I am a great believer. He is exhaustive in the historical detail, and presents a very convincing case for the many interleaved cycles that mark the cadence of mankind's progress -- economic, demographic, revolutionary, geopolitical, migrational, to name a few. Today just happens to be that moment in time when several important cycles are poised to plummet in unison. (Remember biorythms? This is about global biorythms.) I was impressed with Harry Dent's neutrality and even optimism -- he's no Chicken Little. He offers a frank view of what he sees coming, and equally frank counsel on what to do, individually and collectively, to ease that queasy feeling as we go over the edge together. He looks ahead, too, towards confident recovery in coming decades and along with interesting global shifts in power and dominance. If you read this book in 2011, you may find this to be more in the realm of "recent history" than a forecasted future. ...more
2

Feb 18, 2009

I found this book a bit tedious and boring. Loaded with charts and way too many references to his web site, where is wants to charge you $299.00 for updates!

Some of this already seems outdated. I believe we are in a much deeper recession now than he claims. He does predict things will get worse in the near term. From now to mid 2010, he recommends investors stick to cash, money market funds, safe currencies, commodities and energy stocks. He says to stop mortgaging the house to put the kids I found this book a bit tedious and boring. Loaded with charts and way too many references to his web site, where is wants to charge you $299.00 for updates!

Some of this already seems outdated. I believe we are in a much deeper recession now than he claims. He does predict things will get worse in the near term. From now to mid 2010, he recommends investors stick to cash, money market funds, safe currencies, commodities and energy stocks. He says to stop mortgaging the house to put the kids through school, recommending instead to put the money you would have spent into a long term investment account, making them millionaires at the peak of their careers.

The best advice, imho, is that we need a revolution in business and political organization that will meet the crisis in oil and commodity prices, pollution and global warming, trade protectionism, inequality in incomes, lagging infrastructure investments and terrorism.

It is my hope that President Obama and the stimulus plan will help us along these lines....

Wouldn't really recommend this one....
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3

May 07, 2009

This book will give you many interesting things to consider as you plan your investing strategy for the coming years. The demographic trends provide a glimpse into the future, and I believe he is on the right track. I wouldn't take anything as absolute, and adjustments will need to be made, but this is a start. Overall, I found it to be thought provoking about the possibilities ahead.

The book also provides a web page where you can sign up for an email newsletter for updates as the economic This book will give you many interesting things to consider as you plan your investing strategy for the coming years. The demographic trends provide a glimpse into the future, and I believe he is on the right track. I wouldn't take anything as absolute, and adjustments will need to be made, but this is a start. Overall, I found it to be thought provoking about the possibilities ahead.

The book also provides a web page where you can sign up for an email newsletter for updates as the economic conditions change. ...more
3

Feb 03, 2011

I m in page 50 and so far liked how Harry explains the correlation between demographical changes and macro economical fluctuations; however, hes jumping all over the place and provide a range of contradictory evidence to support the idea of big depression ahead. Will continue with reading and look into more details in graphs and numbers I ‘m in page 50 and so far liked how Harry explains the correlation between demographical changes and macro economical fluctuations; however, he’s jumping all over the place and provide a range of contradictory evidence to support the idea of big depression ahead. Will continue with reading and look into more details in graphs and numbers ...more
2

Dec 12, 2018

There was a LOT of information in this book - very dry, economic, analytical information. I read it because I want to learn the language of the finance industry more, but I'm at about a level one. So, some of this felt like trying to take a sip of water from a fire hydrant, but I'll keep it to review over the years.

What I found interesting about this book (and the author in general) is his interest in predicting the future with relative certainty. I find that fascinating, and likely impossible. There was a LOT of information in this book - very dry, economic, analytical information. I read it because I want to learn the language of the finance industry more, but I'm at about a level one. So, some of this felt like trying to take a sip of water from a fire hydrant, but I'll keep it to review over the years.

What I found interesting about this book (and the author in general) is his interest in predicting the future with relative certainty. I find that fascinating, and likely impossible. But, if he can do it within reasonable estimates, I presume I can learn some things from him.

I posted an interesting excerpt from that section on my instagram page (https://www.instagram.com/p/BrLUrfAApJq/) - "Global demographics will finally see a major world peak between 2065 and 2069, with India as the likely leading nation of the world. North America will still be one of the largest economies and a respected and influential world power, along with China, while Europe and Russia will have long since faded. Pakistan and the Middle East are also likely to be rising powers into the 2060s and beyond, especially with another Commodity Cycle peaking (if oil is not largely obsolete by then). The real question will be how much Africa joins globalization by then." I found the demographic studies like this one interesting - comparing the future potentials of different countries.

I'm glad there were so many charts, the visuals helped a lot to process the written information. I learned that a bull market is when the market is on a rise, encouraging spending. A bear market is when the market is on a decline, encouraging selling. I'm sure this is basic knowledge for a lot of people, but like I said, level one.

I'll be checking this book over the years to see how accurate his predictions really are. ...more
4

Aug 17, 2017

This is tedious and dry...so you got to be real interested in the economy to follow it. But I am and he is spot on with his predictions, so it is a great educational tool in learning how economies work. he breaks down areas and predictions very specifically in time periods over the next 30 years. Great investment guidance tool.

3

May 27, 2009

If you can get past the shameless self-promotion and ignore the horrendous writing, The Great Depression Ahead is - dare I say! - interesting. Dent argues that markets are tied to somewhat predictable demographic trends spanning a few months to 5,000 years. Understand where we are in the historic cycles and you can prosper in good times and bad. Or superbad, as we're in now due to massive bubbles in stocks, real estate, and commodities that have peaked and are deflating simultaneously.

As he If you can get past the shameless self-promotion and ignore the horrendous writing, The Great Depression Ahead is - dare I say! - interesting. Dent argues that markets are tied to somewhat predictable demographic trends spanning a few months to 5,000 years. Understand where we are in the historic cycles and you can prosper in good times and bad. Or superbad, as we're in now due to massive bubbles in stocks, real estate, and commodities that have peaked and are deflating simultaneously.

As he reminds you of again and again, Harry S. Dent "stood virtually alone" in predicting the great boom of the 1990s and also got the Japanese slowdown right. So it's somewhat compelling when he states that we've seen long-term peaks in the stock market and economy, and that the economy is now moving into a deep depression that will last until the next bull market in 2020.

The implications for the underlying trends he points to - demographic and technology cycles - are incredibly interesting if you can get past the hyperbole, back-patting and tables. Dent also offers some useful insights in everything from where to live to when to buy which types of investments. And as he prepares you for higher taxes, low to non-existent returns, and increasing volatility he repeatedly reminds you that the good 'ol days weren't always roses, either. Refreshing.

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4

Aug 11, 2010

Dent's use of demography to predict inflection points in the economy makes a lot of intuitive sense to me. I remember in a prior job I did a lot of time series forecasting and regressions, and I always asked myself how does this stuff ever pick up the inflection point. Of course, it doesn't and that's the problem. Dent uses demography to predict when birth cohorts start their biggest years of spending to predict growth in the economy. That's the bad news, however. The baby boomers have peaked Dent's use of demography to predict inflection points in the economy makes a lot of intuitive sense to me. I remember in a prior job I did a lot of time series forecasting and regressions, and I always asked myself how does this stuff ever pick up the inflection point. Of course, it doesn't and that's the problem. Dent uses demography to predict when birth cohorts start their biggest years of spending to predict growth in the economy. That's the bad news, however. The baby boomers have peaked and so the biggest engine of the US economy has also peaked.

I am sure critics of Dent would say that his prediction in this particular book have not come out perfectly. I discount any precise prediction without regard to who made them. It's the big picture that makes a lot of sense.

I guess the news from this one is hold on to your hat; it's going to be rough. I guess we can hope he's 100% wrong... ...more
4

Oct 14, 2011

This book is hot here in the Tampa Florida area.
I have not read the authors previous books.
This one is a cross between plugs for his website and his past books.
However that said, he sure has a past that seems to be paved with good predictions as well as some well grounded stats for his future predictions.

His predictions are very dire.

He also tells individuals and small businesses what to do to survive.

Not everyone in the country can make use of his individual advice though.
For those folks, get This book is hot here in the Tampa Florida area.
I have not read the authors previous books.
This one is a cross between plugs for his website and his past books.
However that said, he sure has a past that seems to be paved with good predictions as well as some well grounded stats for his future predictions.

His predictions are very dire.

He also tells individuals and small businesses what to do to survive.

Not everyone in the country can make use of his individual advice though.
For those folks, get an exit plan for your family now.

If this guy is right, we may not have a country as we know it after the next few years.

Run to the hills or dig in and get ready to simplify your life in all ways immediately. Head to Mother Earth News and see how to live off the grid and to reduce your life to survival mode if you can't afford to invest your way out of the future this author says we are heading for.
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3

Feb 11, 2010

Okay, When I say I read it, I'm lying. I skimmed it. Enough to know that I'm not enough there with investing and economics to understand it well--at least not without some deep, quiet study. But, it was still interesting. Harry S. Dent uses history and economic patterns to predict future economic trends. He has had a measure of success. He also has many who disagree with his predictions and assumptions. If I had a greater understanding of economics (and a quieter house in which to concentrate), Okay, When I say I read it, I'm lying. I skimmed it. Enough to know that I'm not enough there with investing and economics to understand it well--at least not without some deep, quiet study. But, it was still interesting. Harry S. Dent uses history and economic patterns to predict future economic trends. He has had a measure of success. He also has many who disagree with his predictions and assumptions. If I had a greater understanding of economics (and a quieter house in which to concentrate), I might have read more deeply and learned something that would change my spending/investing/saving habits and philosophies. But without the quiet house, it was interesting for a moment and won't change much. ...more
4

Jan 30, 2011

Years ahead of time, he predicted the 2009 (or late 2008) dip based on his "consumer spending" cycle analysis from his book "Roaring 2000's" that I also enjoyed years ago. He feels a World War may happen in the 2020's due to cyclical historical patterns. Hmmmmm. His estimates in the book are off due to a few things, but Obama's "stimulus package" is a biggie. If you factor in this book with his web site for more current updates, that would be a good start. International investing is riskier than Years ahead of time, he predicted the 2009 (or late 2008) dip based on his "consumer spending" cycle analysis from his book "Roaring 2000's" that I also enjoyed years ago. He feels a World War may happen in the 2020's due to cyclical historical patterns. Hmmmmm. His estimates in the book are off due to a few things, but Obama's "stimulus package" is a biggie. If you factor in this book with his web site for more current updates, that would be a good start. International investing is riskier than he's making it seem. Also, he seems to misunderstand the significance of Islam, assuming they will fade out of the scene related to world events. But overall, I found it very helpful. ...more
0

Jan 04, 2009

According to Terry Savage, personal finance columnist of the Chicago Sun-Times, this guy was virtually alone in forecasting the great boom of the 90s in his 1992 book "The Great Boom Ahead." In that earlier book, he also forecast that based on long-term economic trends, the US would enter a recession in 2008, which would last until 2022/23. While I'm hoping he's wrong on the length of this depression, it makes me want to read his new book, actually entitled "The Great Depression Ahead." I'm not According to Terry Savage, personal finance columnist of the Chicago Sun-Times, this guy was virtually alone in forecasting the great boom of the 90s in his 1992 book "The Great Boom Ahead." In that earlier book, he also forecast that based on long-term economic trends, the US would enter a recession in 2008, which would last until 2022/23. While I'm hoping he's wrong on the length of this depression, it makes me want to read his new book, actually entitled "The Great Depression Ahead." I'm not sure why it's showing up with the right cover but wrong title in goodreads. ...more
2

Nov 30, 2011

Demographics are destiny, that much I buy. And the author's analysis of global and regional demographic trends was fascinating. But the rest of the book had too much crystal-ball-gazing and unsubstantiated assertions for my taste. Some of the "cycles" that the author cites are highly questionable and stretch the limits of credibility -- for instance, he thinks that, based on the 1993 World Trade Centre bombing and 9/11 attacks, there is a 8-9 year cycle for major terrorist attacks and we should Demographics are destiny, that much I buy. And the author's analysis of global and regional demographic trends was fascinating. But the rest of the book had too much crystal-ball-gazing and unsubstantiated assertions for my taste. Some of the "cycles" that the author cites are highly questionable and stretch the limits of credibility -- for instance, he thinks that, based on the 1993 World Trade Centre bombing and 9/11 attacks, there is a 8-9 year cycle for major terrorist attacks and we should have (had) another major terrorist attack due around 2009-2010. ...more
3

Jan 08, 2011

Skimmed. Read chapters summaries. This book is intended for people with investment resources. Not what I was looking for. Basically advises investors to abandon cities that do not have positive domestic immigration. He ignores thinks I think he should not. For instance, he thinks that since echo boomers are heading for the South and Southwest, that those are places to invest. I wonder what while happen when the water runs out. I think he optimistically underestimates current events and their Skimmed. Read chapters summaries. This book is intended for people with investment resources. Not what I was looking for. Basically advises investors to abandon cities that do not have positive domestic immigration. He ignores thinks I think he should not. For instance, he thinks that since echo boomers are heading for the South and Southwest, that those are places to invest. I wonder what while happen when the water runs out. I think he optimistically underestimates current events and their long-term effects. ...more
4

Nov 17, 2011

Average person tends to stop moving @ age 34 and peeks in leisure spending @ 54, buys first home @ 31 median repeat age 41. Rental housing tops @ age 26 which is average age of marriage was 22 in 1950 but has gained about a year per decade since.In USA we have 20 million illegal immigrants and the numbers tend to go down during economic downturns.The department of Agriculture estimates that it takes approximately $250,000 to raise one child, not including a college education. By 2050 the average Average person tends to stop moving @ age 34 and peeks in leisure spending @ 54, buys first home @ 31 median repeat age 41. Rental housing tops @ age 26 which is average age of marriage was 22 in 1950 but has gained about a year per decade since.In USA we have 20 million illegal immigrants and the numbers tend to go down during economic downturns.The department of Agriculture estimates that it takes approximately $250,000 to raise one child, not including a college education. By 2050 the average lifespan could be closer to 100 and retirement closer to 85, in more developed countries first. ...more
2

Jun 17, 2010

An interesting study in cyclical analysis.

Some cyclical trends discussed in the book definitely have strong influence on the markets - especially demography.

The book presents a large number of various interweaving trends with different lengths. It signals that these trends influence each other but does not present a framework for analyzing such interdependence.

In result it is hard to say which trend will dominate in a given moment. Also a new unexpected trend may emerge and totally change the An interesting study in cyclical analysis.

Some cyclical trends discussed in the book definitely have strong influence on the markets - especially demography.

The book presents a large number of various interweaving trends with different lengths. It signals that these trends influence each other but does not present a framework for analyzing such interdependence.

In result it is hard to say which trend will dominate in a given moment. Also a new unexpected trend may emerge and totally change the situation. ...more
4

Jan 16, 2009

I know Harry Dent.

He was a most positive guy in the nineties and early 2000s.


It is a good historical read...but I just can't get my head around forecasts that are solely based on demographics...We are all older, we stop buying things and that's why there will be a depression.

This is a most frightening book.

Not because the author foresees a depression sometime in 2010.

No, if he had written the book a 2 years earlier...everything he writes about...seems to have come true in 2008!

I will have a I know Harry Dent.

He was a most positive guy in the nineties and early 2000s.


It is a good historical read...but I just can't get my head around forecasts that are solely based on demographics...We are all older, we stop buying things and that's why there will be a depression.

This is a most frightening book.

Not because the author foresees a depression sometime in 2010.

No, if he had written the book a 2 years earlier...everything he writes about...seems to have come true in 2008!

I will have a glass of wine with him on February 19...and ask him some questions. ...more
2

Apr 10, 2009

Awkward so far, reads like a text version of an infomercial with bolded statements of even bolder claims. When someone tries so hard to convince me that they're right, I get the sense that even they suspect they may be wrong. I'm only starting though; I will give it a chance. The concept seems interesting but also simplistic - I wonder how one can bank on finances being so perfectly cyclical when so many of the factors regulating the system have undergone so many changes.
4

Feb 10, 2010

The book (with it's charts and graphs and at-a-glance features) would be even better than the audio recording (read by the author) which I listened to while driving to and from work. I found the book to be interesting and informative. See http://www.hsdent.com/ or google the author for youtube feeds. Using demographic data from around the world he predicts buying and spending trends to 2080. Very interesting. Very persuasive.
1

Aug 24, 2013

I am too dumb for this book. I tried and tried to get interested, but felt like my eyes were swirling in my head most of the time. This is not a reflection on the book- it is a reflection on me.

I am also too poor for this book. It speaks solely of the stock market, of which I am no part.

Therefore, I am happy to return it to the library and clear my nightstand of it.
2

Apr 12, 2009

Some good points, supported by his charts but seems just about as much a commercial for his newsletter,etc. as it is to convey information. Skim the book for sections of interest, or go to his website and get a slide show version of it in about an hour. Some good 'bullets' in a number of chapters to make note of. It is a bit of a tedious read.
3

Apr 03, 2009

I sure hope everything he forecasts in this book doesn't come to pass. However, the trends he discusses are quite interesting. THere were lots of charts and it wasn't a quick read, but as with his other books, I did learn some things.

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